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Gewinnprognosen: Realitätsverweigerung der Analysten

Von Kilian Bizer, Ibrahim Filiz, Florian Kirchhoff, Thomas Nahmer, Markus Spiwoks und Peter von Holten

sofia Diskussionsbeiträge 2025, No. 7  https://doi.org/10.46850/sofia.9783947850174

In der vorliegenden Studie werden Prognosen zur Entwicklung der Unternehmensgewinne in der US-amerikanischen Volkswirtschaft untersucht. Der Prognosegegenstand ist die prozentuale Veränderung der „Pre-Tax Corporate Profits“ gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Diese Prognosen liegen für den Zeitraum von 1990 bis 2024 vor. Die Prognosen weisen 24 unterschiedliche Prognosehorizonte auf (von 24 Monaten bis zu einem Monat). Sehr überraschend ist der Befund, dass der durchschnittliche Prognosefehler mit abnehmendem Prognosehorizont nicht zurückgeht. Das widerspricht bisherigen empirischen Befunden und ist ein Solitär im Bereich der volkswirtschaftlichen Makro-Prognosen. Darüber hinaus zeigt sich, dass die Prognostiker zum Herdenverhalten neigen, die Variabilität der Wirklichkeit unterschätzen und keineswegs zu optimistisch sind..

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