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Portfoliodiversifikation: Der Einfluss von Herdenverhalten, Status-quo-Verzerrung und Spielerirrtum

Ibrahim Filiz, Thomas Nahmer, Markus Spiwoks and Kilian Bizer

sofia Diskussionsbeiträge 2017, No. 2 https://doi.org/10.46850/sofia.9783941627604

In dieser experimentellen Studie wird betrachtet, welchen Einfluss Herdenverhalten (Orientierung an der Mehrheit der Mitspieler oder Orientierung am erfolgreichsten Mitspieler (Guru), die Status-quo-Verzerrung und der Spielerirrtum auf das Diversifikationsverhalten haben. Dabei zeigt sich, dass weder Herdenverhalten noch Status-quo-Verzerrungen einen nennenswerten Beitrag zur Erklärung von nicht-optimalen Portfolioentscheidungen liefern. Der Spielerirrtum hingegen wird bei Portfolioentscheidungen wirksam. Viele Probanden bemühen sich, in der Historie von Zufallsereignissen Muster zu erkennen und Rückschlüsse auf künftige Zufallsereignisse zu ziehen. Der Spielerirrtum trägt wesentlich dazu bei, dass die optimale Portfoliozusammensetzung nur in 37,7% aller Entscheidungen Berücksichtigung findet.

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