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Confidence, Overconfidence und Exponierung bei Finanzmarktentscheidungen – Experimentelle Evidenz vom US-Aktienmarkt

Von Ibrahim Filiz, Florian Kirchhoff, Thomas Nahmer, Markus Spiwoks und Peter von Holten

sofia Diskussionsbeiträge 2026, No. 2 https://doi.org/10.46850/sofia.9783947850198

Im Rahmen eines Online-Experiments, an dem 402 Probanden aus den USA teilnehmen, werden tatsächliche Ex-ante-Aktienkursprognosen und tatsächliche Ex-ante-Investitionsentscheidungen ins Verhältnis zu den Ausmaßen des Selbstbewusstseins (Confidence) und der Selbstüberschät zung (Overconfidence) der Probanden gesetzt. Es zeigt sich, dass selbstbewusste und sich selbst überschätzende Probanden eher geneigt sind, bei Aktienkursprognosen meinungsstark aufzu treten und sich mit den eigenen Prognosen zu exponieren. Es zeigt sich ferner, dass Frauen und Männer unterschiedlich selbstbewusst sind und in unterschiedlichem Maße Overconfidence an den Tag legen. Schließlich kann festgestellt werden, dass die Confidence besser geeignet ist, das Prognoseverhalten der Wirtschaftssubjekte zu erfassen als die Overconfidence.

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