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Wahres Wissen besteht darin, das Ausmaß der eigenen Unwissenheit zu kennen

Von Ibrahim Filiz, Zulia Gubaydullina, Florian Kirchhoff, Thomas Nahmer, Markus Spiwoks und Peter von Holten

sofia Diskussionsbeiträge 2025, No. 2 https://doi.org/10.46850/sofia.9783947850129

Führt ein höheres Maß an Unwissenheit zu einer höheren subjektiven Sicherheit bei der Abgabe von Aktienkursprognosen? Diese Frage wird im Rahmen eines kontrollierten Laborexperimentes untersucht. 150 Probanden geben Aktienkursprognosen (Richtungsprognosen: steigt oder steigt nicht) für drei reale Aktien ab. Anschließend wird anhand einer Likertskala erfasst, wie sicher sich die Probanden sind, dass sich ihre Prognosen tatsächlich bewahrheiten werden. Danach beantworten die Probanden 50 kapitalmarktrelevante Fachfragen. Die Anzahl der richtigen Antworten zeigt näherungsweise den Stand des börsenrelevanten Fach- und Erfahrungswissens an. Es stellt sich heraus, dass diejenigen, die über wenig Fach- und Erfahrungswissen verfügen, von ihren Prognosen besonders überzeugt sind und vice versa. Dieses Ergebnis stellt sich bei Männern deutlich ein und ist auch statistisch hochsignifikant. Bei Frauen ist dieser Zusammenhang nur schwach ausgeprägt und erweist sich als statistisch nicht signifikant.

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