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Correlation Neglect und Overconfidence - Eine experimentelle Studie

Markus Spiwoks and Kilian Bizer

sofia Diskussionsbeiträge 2016, No. 6 https://doi.org/10.46850/sofia.9783941627567

In der vorliegenden experimentellen Studie wurden erstmals Probanden mit der Aufgabe konfrontiert, reale Aktienkursverläufe ex ante zu prognostizieren, um den Zusammenhang der Verhaltensanomalien Overcondidence und Correlation Neglect zu analysieren. Es zeigt sich, dass die Teilnehmer der Studie ihre Prognosefähigkeiten in erheblichem Umfang überschätzen (Overconfidence). Ein großer Teil der Probanden (42,2%) vernachlässigt die Korrelationen der Renditeentwicklung verschiedener Anlageinstrumente (Correlation Neglect). Ferner zeigt sich, dass sich die Correlation Neglect bei der Kursprognose von diversifizierten Anlageinstrumenten (Fonds) dämpfend auf die Overconfidence auswirkt.

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