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Zur Messung von Overconfidence - Eine experimentelle Studie

Markus Spiwoks and Kilian Bizer

sofia Diskussionsbeiträge 2016, No. 7 https://doi.org/10.46850/sofia.9783941627574

Diese Studie wendet sich zwei üblichen Verfahren zur Messung von Overconfidence zu und überprüft die Zuverlässigkeit dieser Verfahren. Es zeigt sich, dass die übliche Form der Abfrage der subjektiven Sicherheit bezüglich einer abgegebenen Prognose zu einer systematischen Überschätzung der Overconfidence beitragen kann. Außerdem zeigt sich, dass die übliche Form zur Erfassung der relativen Selbsteinschätzung ebenfalls zu einer Ergebnisverzerrung beitragen kann. Dies gilt insbesondere, wenn sich eine Probanden-gruppe nicht paritätisch aus Frauen und Männern zusammensetzt.

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